Introduction
In an earlier article, I wrote about the decline of silver production levels in mining. Globally, gold has the same structural issues. From 2018 to 2024, gold mining production showed signs of decline or stagnation indicating a downward trend. While global output plateaued since around 2018, specific regions in the U.S. saw gradual reductions. During this period, Canada’s northern territories reported falling exploration investments – despite some national increases. This report examines five key reasons contributing to this phenomenon, drawing on data from the U.S., Canada, and broader global trends, while also highlighting the slight increase in production that took place in 2025. The analysis is based on industry reports and economic analyses, highlighting that structural challenges are likely to persist.
Key Reasons of Declining Gold Production: 2018 -2024
1. Depletion of High-Grade Reserves
A core factor behind declining gold production is the exhaustion of easily accessible, high-grade ore deposits. Historically rich mining regions, such as South Africa’s Witwatersrand Basin, have seen dramatic output declines due to resource depletion, with estimates suggesting only about 39 years of accessible reserves remain at current rates. Production has also plateaued over recent years as major gold belts such as Nevada’s Carlin Trend and Australia’s Kalgoorlie Sper Pit face reserve depletion after decades of extraction [1]. In the U.S., where gold mining is less dominant, production has decreased gradually as shallow, high-yield deposits are mined out, leaving lower-grade ores that are more costly to extract [2]. Canada has experienced mixed results, with overall output rising 32% from 2014 to 2024 – due to new mines in Quebec and Ontario. However, long-term sustainability is threatened by depleting reserves in established areas. [1]
2. Rising Operational and All-In Sustaining Costs
From 2018 – 2024, escalating costs associated with gold mining eroded profitability and discouraged expansion. The average All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) reached a record U.S. $1343 per ounce in Q3 2023, driven by inflation in fuel, energy, labor, and consumables [3]. In the U.S. and Canada, where production relies on deeper or lower-grade deposits, costs have contributed to a “backward-rising” supply curve, where higher gold prices paradoxically led to reduced output due to economic pressure on marginal mines [4]. High capital expenditures for new projects that further constrain growth and declining ore grades lead to extraction becoming more resource-intensive.
3. Declining Exploration Spending and Investment
In 2024, global exploration budgets dropped 7 %, as junior miners struggled with funding amid higher interest rates and risk aversion [5]. In Canada, despite record-high gold prices, exploration spending in British Columbia dropped 14 % from 2023 to 2024, with gold-targeted exploration down 24 %, attributed to regulatory hurdles and a focus on existing operations [6]. In the U.S., similar trends prevailed, with fewer new discoveries due to soaring costs and investor shifts toward brownfield expansions rather than greenfield projects [7]. Globally, the scarcity of large-scale discoveries, combined with consolidation of major producers, affected supply.
4. Regulatory and Environmental Challenges
Stricter regulations and environmental standards delayed projects and increasing compliance costs, particularly in developed nations. In Canada, permitting delays and more stringent environmental requirements slowed development, contributing to a decade-long trend of fewer large-scale gold projects advancing [7]. Northern territories such as the Yukon, Northwest Territories, and Nunavut saw exploration declines in 2024, partly because of regulatory streamlining calls amid environmental concerns [8]. The United States faced similar issues, with environmental regulations making new mine approvals lengthy and uncertain. Globally, these factors, combined with community opposition and sustainability mandates, made making mine development more challenging, with fewer projects reaching production and existing ones facing higher hurdles for expansion [9].
5. Operational Disruptions and Geopolitical Factors
Frequent disruptions from pandemics, safety issues, industrial actions, and geopolitical instability impacted output. Global production averaged near-zero year-over-year growth from 2018 – 2024, affected by COVID-19 and strikes. In the U.S. and Canada, where mining is integrated into stable economies, disruptions were less severe but still notable, such as safety-related halts [10]. Globally, a rising share comes from politically unstable countries or adversaries of the West, introducing risks such policy changes that affect output. These factors amplify supply volatility and long-term declines.
Production in 2025: A Slight Global Increase
As stated, from 2018 – 2024, global mine production was essentially flat. In 2025 however, the World Gold Council’s October 30, 2025 publication, “Gold Demand Trends: Q3 2025”, report stated that during the first three quarters, global production was 16 tonnes higher year-over-year, positioning the year for a new all-time high. Key drivers included new project ramp-ups (particularly in Canada), expansions, higher margins from surging gold prices, and increased output from artisanal/small-scale mining. Canada was certainly a key contributor to global growth. New mines and expansions (i.e. Equinox Gold, B2Gold and Agnico-Eagle) drove expansions. Several major Canadian producers reported record or near-record years, with guidance and actuals showing strong output. (The United States, however, did not experience an increase in production for 2025.) It should be noted that full-year 2025 data has not yet been published [11].
Conclusion
The decline in gold production from 2018 -2024 was driven by a confluence of geological, economic, regulatory, and external factors that show no signs of abating. While short-term fluctuations may occur, the structural challenges involving reserve depletion and rising costs may continue to affect output in the U.S., Canada, and the world. For 2025, Canada’s increase in production did contribute to the small rise in total global output. Nevertheless, with ongoing upward pressure on the price of gold, future production is difficult to forecast, highlighting the need for innovation in exploration and sustainable mining practices. In 2026, will Canada’s 2025 trend toward increased production lift global total output?
Sources:
[1] theoregongroup.com, https://theoregongroup.com/commodities/gold/peak-gold-is-the-world-running-out-of-gold-why-explorers-are-critical-as-2050-looms/
[2] auronum.co.uk, https://auronum.co.uk/golds-unusual-supply-curve-why-production-falls-as-prices-rise/
[3] gold.org, https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-full-year-2023/supply
[4] auronum.co.uk, https://auronum.co.uk/golds-unusual-supply-curve-why-production-falls-as-prices-rise/
[5] carboncredits.com, https://carboncredits.com/the-rarity-of-a-new-gold-mine-west-red-lake-gold-could-be-a-golden-2025-opportunity/
[7] cruxinvestor.com, https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/the-scarcity-of-large-scale-gold-development-projects-in-canada-creates-a-unique-opportunity-for-investors
[9] news.futunn.com, https://news.futunn.com/en/post/67092258/soaring-gold-prices-fail-to-boost-output-has-global-gold?level=1&data_ticket=1768835217656302
[10] seekingalpha.com, https://seekingalpha.com/article/4857935-is-mined-gold-production-peaking
[11] World Gold Council, https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q3-2025
Gold Proficiency
Disclaimer:
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